That's right. I'm entering The Dead Zone.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
The towels are kinda scratchy
That's right. I'm entering The Dead Zone.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Stephenie Meyer self-deprecates
[Edward:] "I still think it would be a better story if either of them had one redeeming quality."For my part, the Edwardobellan romance did less to redeem the saga than did all the interesting trivia associated with vampires. Those of you who know both me and the saga well know that there was one romance that would have made the saga compelling for me . . .
[Bella:] "I think that may be the point," . . . "Their love IS their only redeeming quality."
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Summaries
I've given up on baseball for the year.Thank you and goodnight.
The Rangers disappoint me every time.
I should have seen it coming back in June.
Save the Wettelands
The closer is under attack. His main stat---the save---they call illegitimate. They say he's overpaid, overglorified, and underqualified. But I say he's the missing piece of your 2009 Texas Rangers.
A pitcher is credited with a save when he obtains at least one out to finish a game won by his team. He cannot be the pitcher credited with the win, and he must have entered the game with at least three innings left or with the potential tying run on base, at bat, or on deck.* You can see the value of a stolid closer---a fireman in the mold of the fabled Goose Gossage---by looking at conversion rate. The conversion rate is the percentage of times a closer records a save when he has the opportunity to. Mathematically:
A pitcher blows a save when he gives up the lead, regardless of the end result of the game. The value of the conversion rate lies in its measure of a closer's reliability, of his ability to do what he's supposed to do. To illustrate, we'll compare a pitcher who recorded a high number of saves to the closers for recently successful teams and the closers of one of the most consistently dominant teams in recent history.
In 2008, Francisco Rodriguez saved a record-breaking 62 games for the Angels, helping them win the AL West for the fourth time in five years. But he also blew 7 saves. His conversion rate was only 90 percent. In Game 2 of the ALDS against the Red Sox, he came on in the top of the 9th to keep the game tied at 5. Instead, he gave up a two-run home run to J.D. Drew. The Angels lost 7-5 and fell behind two games to none as the series headed to Boston. The Angels won Game 3, despite Rodriguez's nerve-wracking, six-batter 10th inning, only to lose the series in Game 4 on Jed Lowrie's walk-off single. You'll notice who they didn't bring on in the bottom of the 9th to keep the tie. Rodriguez signed with the Mets in the off-season, and the Angels didn't much care.**
Now let's look at recently successful teams. Philadelphia's Brad Lidge converted all 41 of his save opportunities in 2008. At the same time, Tampa Bay's Troy Percival and Dan Wheeler combined to convert only 41 of their 50 save opportunities---a paltry 82 percent. The Phillies won the World Series in 5 games.
In 2007, Boston's Jonathan Papelbon converted 37 of his 40 save opportunities (93 percent), and Colorado's two closers combined for 7 relief losses and 10 blown saves---a conversion rate of only 80 percent. The Red Sox swept the Rockies, and Papelbon is credited saving three of those games. (To be fair, Colorado never presented its closers with a save opportunity.)
What about the 2007 Cleveland Indians? Their rotation included CC Sabbathia, Fausto Carmona, Paul Byrd, and an up-and-coming Cliff Lee. They started games just fine. But when they needed somebody to hold onto a close game, they could only turn to Joe Borowski. His 5 relief losses and 8 blown saves limited his conversion rate to only 85 percent. The Indians slipped past the Yankees with two blowouts in the ALDS, then fought Boston to the bitter end in the ALCS. Borowski finished Games 1, 2, 3, and 6 against the Red Sox, racking up a 4.50 ERA while giving up 6 hits and 3 walks and striking out only 1 batter in 4 innings. It's hard to say how much his performance mattered. He didn't blow any saves, but Game 3, for which he earned the save, was the only close one.
Finally, let's talk about America's team: the Atlanta Braves. From 1991 until 2005, they won their division every year except 1994.*** The 1991 Braves won the pennant but lost the World Series. Three relievers were presented with at least 10 save opportunities, and their combined conversion rate was 90 percent. The 1992 Braves tried the same tri-closer strategy. The trio combined to convert 74 percent of the time, and the Braves lost to the Blue Jays in the World Series. In 1993, they dropped one of their closers, converted only 85 percent of their opportunities, and lost the NLCS to the Phillies. In 1994, Greg McMichael was their ninth-inning guy, and he converted only 68 percent of the time. (That's the year they finished second in the NL East.) In 1995, Mark Wohlers took over closing duties, but he only converted 86 percent of his opportunities.**** Over the next decade or so, their closers, on average, converted only 85 percent of their save opportunities. The best three years came when an aging John Smoltz took over ninth-inning duties. Even he, however, could convert only 91 percent of the time from 2002 to 2004.
The lesson: If you don't have a reliable closer, you probably won't win the World Series. That is why, my friends who have held on this long, the Rangers will probably not win either the AL West or the AL Wild Card. Even if they did, they would probably not survive the ALDS, much less the ALCS or the World Series. C.J. Wilson and Frank Francisco have combined to convert only 38 of their 46 save opportunities, a lame 83 percent conversion rate. I like C.J., and I like Frank, but without a stolid closer, we lose too many heartbreakers. Like tonight's 7-6 tear-jerker against the Devil Rays.
But there's always next year.
--------------------
* This explains the traditional rule of thumb, i.e., that the pitcher pitches at least one inning and the lead was no bigger than 3 runs.
** Nor have they much noticed his absence. Brian Fuentes has converted 44 of 51 save opportunities (a rate of 86 percent), and they will (hopefully not) win the AL West by a comfortable margin. Sounds like the same old song and dance to me.
*** I think it's worth noting that the Expos were only up by 6 games with almost 50 left to play when the players struck. It's not unreasonable to think that the Braves might have caught on fire or the Expos fallen asleep during those six weeks.
****Admittedly, they beat the Indians in the World Series. The Indians closer, Jose Mesa, converted 46 of 48 saves that year, a highly respectable 96 percent.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Percolation
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
A Dab of Paint
the philosopher is not content to describe the fact; he wishes to ascertain its relation to experience in general, and thereby get at its meaning and its worth; . . . he tries to put together, better than before, that great universe-watch which the inquisitive scientist has anlytically taken apart.
Monday, September 07, 2009
Twilight (movie): 7/10
Saturday, September 05, 2009
Only Losers Play Clean
Bowen and Kobe probably had as many high profile match ups as any two players over the last decade, yet we have never heard Kobe accuse Bowen of being a dirty player.You see, there are the elite, who have consistently dominated over the past ten years, and the also-rans, who never quite had enough gas. Maybe the also-rans accuse the elite of playing dirty so they don't have to admit they don't have what it takes.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Martyr Complex
At trial, public defender Sean Coleman tried to get his client off by asking jurors "what kind of moron robs one restaurant [more than once] within a little more than (a week)? It makes no sense."
[A] recent Supreme Court ruling against "warrantless searches" may limit the number of cases in which such evidence is found[.]
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Zero to Sixty in 12.2
Friday, August 14, 2009
Ego Te Provoco
In a paper last month in the online journal Evolutionary Psychology, Gregory Paul finds that countries with the lowest rates of social dysfunction—based on 25 measures, including rates of homicide, abortion, teen pregnancy, sexually transmitted disease, unemployment, and poverty—have become the most secular. Those with the most dysfunction, such as Portugal and the U.S., are the most religious, as measured by self-professed belief, church attendance, habits of prayer, and the like.Begley's article and Paul's paper are more about whether religion is hard-wired, genetic, and instinctive, but they raise an important issue for people like me, who grew up singing "Jesus is the answer for the world today." The question, I think, is one of cause and effect. Specifically, which is the cause, the functionality or the secularism, and which is the effect? Maybe more importantly, what is the causal relationship between religion and a dysfunctional society?
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Details
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Ordinarily, Hyde Carried a Rabid Dog This Way
Sunday, August 02, 2009
Vexillology for Dummies
Saturday, August 01, 2009
My Pebble
Thursday, July 30, 2009
The Other Side
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Testing is my aeroplane
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Tyler Durden would read Twilight
The gyms you go to are crowded with guys trying to look like men, as if being a man means looking the way a sculptor or an art director says. [Chuck Palahniuk, Fight Club]
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Black---the night that ends at last!
[T]he best scripts have very few explanatory passages. Adding explanation to the descriptive passages of a screenplay is the most dangerous trap you can fall into. It’s easy to explain the psychological state of a character at a particular moment, but it’s very difficult to describe it through the delicate nuances of action and dialogue. Yet it is not impossible. A great deal about this can be learned from the study of the great plays, and I believe the “hard-boiled” detective novels can also be very instructive.Yes! I can read a novel for its interesting story, and still play the artsy fartsy card!! Kurosawa said so!
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Don't articulate---Exclamate!!
Error may not be predicated upon a ruling which admits . . . evidence unless a substantial right of the party is affected, and . . . a timely objection or motion to strike appears of record, stating the specific ground of objection, if the specific ground was not apparent from the context[.]For my non-law friends, this is referred to as the "specific objection rule." At trial, you can't just yell out "Objection!!" and expect the judge to hammer her gavel and affirm your just rage with a clear and condemning "Sustained!!" She won't. Not in Texas, at least. Instead, you have to articulate, saying something like "Objection---hearsay," or "Objection---the defendant's sexual history is irrelevant to whether he ran the red light." As you can see, exclamation points get drowned in the articulation.
Error may not be predicated upon a ruling that admits . . . evidence unless the party is prejudiced by the ruling, and . . . a timely objection or motion to strike appears of record, stating the specific ground of objection, if the specific ground was requested by the court or required by the rule[.] (emphasis added)Maryland Rule 5-103(a)(1). That, my friends, is colloquially referred to as the "Maryland!! beats Texas. rule." In a Maryland court of law, see, you can vent your frustration with that lone beautiful word: "Objection!!" See? When you don't have to articulate, you can exclamate. And that's a beautiful thing.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Twilight: 3/5
I enjoyed the story. It was clever in ways, but nothing remarkable or groundbreaking. Meyer did her research, which I appreciated. She asks the reader to suspend disbelief in a major way but cleverly lets you trust her with the minor things.
The writing itself is either brilliant or savvy. She could be brilliant in the way that Ken Kesey or J.D. Salinger were brilliant: narrating in character. I've never been a melodramatic 17-year-old girl in the throes of teenage romance, but I knew a few. The character was pretty believable in that respect. Maybe not literary or original or whatever, but believable. On the other hand, Meyer could be a savvy writer, writing a story that takes advantage of her limited talent or skill. If Meyer's skill is equivalent to a high school junior's, then more power to her for finding an outlet that lets her make a ton of money taking advantage of it.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Holy Grail
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Staying Power = 400 posts
Thursday, July 09, 2009
Fitz'ger-ald
This tagline about bringing [Miami, D.C., New York, L.A., etc.] to Baltimore almost guarantees failure [of a new restaurant]. I'm not saying the line is bad luck. It's not. But the line means the owners have a mindset that, most times, just doesn't jive here.That's what I love about this place. "We're Baltimore, and we like it. You don't have to be from here to fit in. If you like it, we like you." It reminds me of a country song:
Everybody knows everybodyYeah, so just ignore the crime rate.
Everybody calls you "friend."
You don't need an invitation.
Kick off your shoes, come on in.
Yeah we know how to work and we know how to play,
We're from [Baltimore] and we like it that way.
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Good Bad Guys
Saturday, July 04, 2009
Fireworks in Baltimore
Friday, July 03, 2009
Guacamole Salad
I don't like anything about San Antonio, their coaching staff, their franchise or their city. The only thing I like about San Antonio is guacamole salad.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Listen for the Fat Lady
Monday, June 29, 2009
Wash Your Hands Less
Has it ever occurred to you how astonishing the culture of Western society really is? Industrialized nations provide their citizens with unprecedented safety, health, and comfort. Average life spans increased fifty percent in the last century. Yet modern people live in abject fear. They are afraid of strangers, of disease, of crime, of the environment. They are afraid of the homes they live in, the food they eat, the technology that surrounds them. They are in a particular panic over things they can't even see--germs, chemicals, additives, pollutants. They are timid, nervous, fretful, and depressed.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Tales in Avacado
- April 2, 2001: the day I ran into The Missus during a fire drill and decided to make her The Missus
- May 21, 2004: the day I made The Missus The Missus
- March 2, 1993: the day she (not The Missus) waved me across and then ran me over
- August 12, 1994: the day John Kruk said $13,000 a game wasn't enough
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Maryland is the new Louisiana
- contributory negligence and assumption of the risk as absolute bars to recovery are alive and well in the Old Line State
- the Model Penal Code and it's four mental states are frowned upon in favor of the classic triumvirate of specific intent, malice, and general intent
- Daubert and its progeny are laughed at in favor of the classic "general acceptance" test
- judges wear powdered wigs and lawyers wear formal attire in court and trill their R's
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Insightful Lawyer Joke
Monday, June 22, 2009
Plumbers Without Borders
Monday, June 15, 2009
Michael Crichton's Prey: 4/5
If you want to think of it that way, a human being is actually a giant swarm. Or more precisely, it's a swarm of swarms, because each organ---blood, liver, kidneys---is a separate swarm. What we refer to as a "body" is really the combination of all these organ swarms.
We think our bodies are solid, but that's only because we can't see what is going on at the cellular level. If you could enlarge the human body, blow it up to a vast size, you would see that it was literally nothing but a swirling mass of cells and atoms, clustered together into smaller swirls of cells and atoms.
Who cares? Well, it turns out a lot of processing occurs at the level of the organs. Human behavior is determined in many places. The control of our behavior is not located in our brains. It's all over our bodies.
So you could argue that "swarm intelligence" rules human beings, too. Balance is controlled by the cerebellar swarm, and rarely comes to consciousness. Other processing occurs in the spinal cord, the stomach, the intestine. A lot of vision takes place in the eyeballs, long before the brain is involved.Stay with me now.
So there's an argument that the whole structure of consciousness, and the human sense of self-control and purposefulness, is a user illusion. We don't have conscious control over ourselves at all. We just think we do.
Just because human beings went around thinking of themselves as "I" didn't mean it was true.Could this explain why psychology is a two-way mirror? It seems like we can always look at our friends and neighbors and pick out their problems (and solutions), but we can never figure our own out. Maybe that's because our consciousness is spread across our billions of cells, the vast majority of which are too busy digesting, oxygenating, or doing whatever to pay attention to the deeper questions of life.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Balmy Balmer
Friday, June 05, 2009
Move Over J.D. Salinger

Monday, June 01, 2009
Slummin, Oscar-Style
Think about other great movies. The Godfather tells us an old story about love and family within the Italian mob. One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest forced us to ponder who the really crazy ones are and what we're doing about it. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind asked questions as old as the human race about the inevitability of life. What did Slumdog teach us?
That honesty is the best policy? Awesome. Ten Things I Hate About You, How to Lose a Guy in Ten Days, and a hundred other non-classics tackle that same weighty issue.
But maybe my real beef with the movie is its troubling social darwinism. Which slumdog wins 20 million rupees and which slumdog died alone in a bathtub full of cash? And which slumdog has been begging for so long he can identify your alms by smell (since he can't see)? And what about all those other slumdogs whom Javed made homeless? Those unglorified stories, juxtaposed as they are with Jamal's, stink of Victorian theories on life and fairness, that the downtrodden are downtrodden for a reason.
No thanks. I'll take Yes Man and the questions it makes me ask myself over another movie telling me life really is fair.
Sent from my iPod
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Shh
Friday, May 08, 2009
Contemplation
away. Then I walked next door and disassembled the dog run I bought
from my neighbor. Then I came home and read twenty pages of Les
Miserables. Then I lay on my air mattress on the floor of my empty
living room and thought about the last three years.
My last class was certified yesterday, so I am officially a doctor of
jurisprudence. But with all my book learnin', I couldn't remember what
duty of care my neighbor owed me in case I got bitten by that black
widow whose nest I destroyed while disassembling the dog run. Maybe
there's a reason nobody calls us "doctor."
At least I spotted the issue.
Sent from my iPod
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Le Futur
[T]his [year's Spurs] was a 54-win team, and it limped to the finish. And it could heal.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Go Spurs Go
- Tim Duncan - St. Timothy played with more fire than anybody on the court. His knees just got in the way.
- Tony Parker - What hasn't been said about Antoine? Face the facts, NBA: Tony Parker is an elite scorer.
- Roger Mason Jr. - We will always remember your last-second shot against the Lakers. Welcome to San Antonio, Big Shot Rog. I hope you stay a while.
- George Hill - The Pride of IUPUI may be the future of San Antonio. Pop benched him for too long, but he was ready when the call came in Games 3, 4, and 5.
- Kurt Thomas - Do I need to say anything other than this about Sir Kurt?
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Why Baylor Law Is Awesome
He made everyone t-shirts. They had caricatures of him that previous students had doodled on final exams, along with a few quotes that he’s said over 150 times this quarterYou may be curious about who this "he" is. The man that my class knows and loves as Prof. LAPP taught Civil Procedure this quarter so that the usual Prof. Civ Pro could try some cases. We may or may not know those 150-times quotes, but we know the man. And he is awesome.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Hoop Dreams
- Cleveland over Detroit
- Chicago over Boston
- Philly over Orlando
- Atlanta over Miami
- Utah over L.A.
- N'awlins over Denver
- Santonio over Fort Worth
- Houston over Portland
- Toughie. I like Cleveland over Atlanta, but I wish they could play in the Eastern Conference Finals.
- Chicago over Philly, but I don't really care. Chicago just because they'd be a funner matchup for Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals
- Utah over Houston (the I-10 Rivalry is still alive)
- Santonio over N'awlins (could this be another I-10 Rivalry?)
- East: Cleveland over Chicago
- West: Santonio muting the Jazz
Thursday, April 16, 2009
NBA Playoffs Picks
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Newer and Better Fantasies
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
Pythagoras Is Never Wrong
Monday, April 06, 2009
The Why Chromosome
I believe that if this Court were abolished, its chambers demolished, the ground plowed up, and the site paved over, one day a crack would appear in the concrete, and through that crack a black-robed arm would thrust an opinion that says, "We hold that the indictment in this case was not an indictment."
The evidence plainly refutes the claim that the [Second] Amendment was motivated by the Framers' fears that Congress might act to regulate any civilian uses of weapons.
Saturday, April 04, 2009
Pantheon of Ironies
Friday, April 03, 2009
Our Fans Are Better than Yours
Unfortunately for the Lakers, their fans aren't paying attention that closely because they're busy either trying to get on the Jumbotron, averting their eyes from Dyan Cannon, or trying to figure out things like "How many points do you get if you shoot one from half court?" or "How come that clock on the backboard keeps counting down backward from 24?"
I don't ask those questions, but I will ask this one: Who is Dyan Cannon?




