NFL Predix III: Let's try that again

To recap the NFL Postseason so far: Jeremy was right about the Cowboys beating the Eagles, the Jets beating the Bengals, and the Ravens beating the Patriots.  He picked the Packers, Cardinals, Ravens, Cowboys, and Chargers and lost.  So after a sterling 3-1 start, I dropped to 3-5 after the Divisional Playoff Round.

But I am not one to lie in the dust after getting thrown by this bronckin buck.  So let's try this again.

Lamar Hunt Bowl XL

The Indianapolis Colts will host the New York Jets in the battle for the Lamar Hunt Trophy.  This is the first time these two teams have fought for control of the AFC.  The Colts are making their sixth appearance (2-3 overall, 2-1 home), and the Jets are making their third appearance (0-2 overall, 0-2 road).  History favors the Colts.  I also told my oldest friend back in September that the Jets would make it to the Super Bowl.  But my father-in-law is from Indiana, so I'm going to go with the Colts.

George Halas Bowl XL

The New Orleans Saints will host the Minnesota Vikings in the battle for the George Halas Trophy.  These teams have never fought for the Halas either.  The Saints are making their second appearance (0-1 overall, 0-0 home); the Vikings are making their eighth appearance (3-4 overall, 1-3 road).  The Vikings haven't won since 1976.  I told my oldest friend back in September that the Saints would make it to the Super Bowl, so I'm picking them.

Super Bowl XLIV 

The New Orleans Saints will be making their very first Super Bowl appearance.*  The Indianapolis Colts will be making their fourth appearance (second as a midwestern team).  The Colts are 2-1, including 1-0 since moving to Indianapolis.  I'm a little torn, but I gotta pick the team that beat the team that beat my team.  I'm picking the Saints.

*This is ironic because New Orleans has hosted more super bowls than any other city except Miami.

There you have it, folks.  Let's hope that I can break even after this week.

Big Shot Brob

I hate the Lakers, but I love this play:




Kobe misses the short jumper.  Shaq misses the put back.  Horry nails the 3.

NFL Predix II

I did pretty well the last go'round: 3/4.  But really, was it so daring to pick the Cowboys over the Eagles, the Ravens over the Patriots, and the Jets over the Bengals?  I think not.  Now we get into the nitty gritty: the NFL Divisional Playoffs.  Since I missed one of my games, I decided to re-examine my predictions.

Divisional Playoffs

Ravens at Indianapolis - The Colts beat the Ravens in Baltimore during Week 11, 17-15.  This go'round, the Colts are on a 2-game losing streak, and the Ravens are on a 2-game winning streak.  I believe in momentum, and I still believe the Ravens win.

Jets at San Diego - The Jets and Chargers meet for the first time since Week 3 of 2008, which the Chargers won in San Diego 48-29.  The Jets won their third in a row yesterday, but the Chargers have an 11-game win streak going.  All momentum points west.  I'm still picking the Chargers.

Cardinals at New Orleans - Last time, I picked the Packers over the Saints.  Too bad the Packers lost to the Cardinals, so now I have to re-think my predictions.  The Cardinals have won 3 of their last 4, and the Saints have lost their last 3.  The friend of my enemy is my friend, so the Cardinals take it.

Cowboys at Minnesota - The last time these two met in the playoffs was during Wild Card Week 1999 in Minnesota.  The Vikings won that contest, 27-10.  But three years earlier, the Cowboys beat the Vikings during Wild Card Week in Dallas, 40-15.  All-time, the two are even, with 10 wins each.  But the Cowboys are riding a 4-game winning streak, and the Vikings have lost 3 of their last 5.  I still pick the Cowboys.

Conference Championships

Ravens at San Diego - I stand by my prior decision.  Chargers win.

Cowboys at Cardinals - The names have changed, but the results are the same.  Cowboys win this one by 87.

Super Bowl XLI

Cowboys v. San Diego at Paul Tyson Field - Still no contest.  Cowboys all the way.

Current Record: 3-1

The Graduate: 4.5/5

The Graduate is brilliant and funny in so many ways.  And it's the first movie I've ever seen where I actually sat back and thought: "Wow.  That was an amazing shot.  Incredible."

Here's the scene: Benjamin is telling Elaine the truth before Mrs. Robinson can.  He says, "Remember that older woman?  Well, it wasn't just any woman."  Then Mrs. Robinson opens the door, and Elaine turns around.  She looks back at Benjamin, who has a funny look on his face.  At first, Elaine is blurry, but slowly she comes into focus.

At just about the speed it takes her to figure out what the look on Benjamin's face means.

I sat back and thought: "Wow.  That was an amazing shot.  Incredible."

NFL Predix

The NFL season ended last weekend, and now it's time for you to indulge me by reading my football predictions.  Three important qualifications:

1. I know a little less than the average bear about the NFL.
2. I grew up in a distant suburb of Dallas.
3. I'm a big fan of momentum in football.
   

 That said, here are my predictions:

The Wild Card Round

(5) New York* v. (4) Cincinnati - The Jets have won 5 of their last 6, and the Bengals have lost 3 of the last 4.  Jets by 17.

*Isn't it great that I only have to type

"New York" and not "New York Jets"?

(6) Eagles v. (3) Cowboys - The Eagles have won 6 of their last 7, but the Cowboys have won 3 in a row, two by shutout (including last week against the Eagles) and one against the then-undefeated Saints.  Cowboys by 146.

(6) Ravens v. (3) Patriots - Both the Ravens and the Patriots have won 3 of their last 4.  The Ravens won their last game, beating the Raiders when they had to.  The Patriots lost their last game, giving the Texans their first ever winning season.  Ravens by a safety.

(5) Packers v. (4) Cardinals - The Packers have won 7 of their last 8, and the Cardinals lost half of their last 6 games.  The Packers beat the Cardinals in Week 17.  Packers by 6.

Odd note: Jets-Bengals, Eagles-Cowboys, and Packers-Cardinals are all repeats of Week 17.  I wonder how often that's happened.

The Divisional Round

(1) Saints v. (5) Packers - The Saints won their first 13 games, then lost their last 3.  The Packers will be riding a streak of 3 in a row and 8 of their last 9.  Packers will brees by.

(2) Vikings v. (3) Cowboys - The Vikings have lost 3 of their last 5.  The Cowboys will be running a 4-game winning streak.  Cowboys by 4.

(1) Colts v. (6) Ravens - The Colts won their first 14 and lost their last 2.  The Ravens will have won 4 of their last 5, including 2 in a row.  Ravens by a feather.

(2) Chargers v. (5) New York - The Chargers have won 11 in a row.  I don't think the Jets have anything for that.  Chargers win it at Waco High Stadium.

Conference Championship Round

(5) Packers v. (3) Cowboys - I got nothing.  Cowboys by 87.

(6) Ravens v. (2) Chargers - Chargers will have won 12 in a row.  And we all want to see a Super Bowl at Waco High Stadium.  Chargers by 12.

Super Bowl XLIV at Waco High Stadium

It would be even cooler if it were at Paul Tyson Field. Cowboys crush Chargers and embarrass L.T.II.

You heard it hear first, folks.

Elle Eye Vee Eye Inn

I grew up on the wisdom of David Wooderson, so maybe that explains much of my Weltanschauung.  But I've also read a bit of Descartes, Locke, Kant, and Wittgenstein (my personal favorite), as well as King, Asimov, Dickens, and Blatty.  Oh, and I can't forget Stevenson, Fleming, Crichton, and Fitzgerald.  I have even read an essay or two by Russell and Lewis.  And here is my conclusion: We are all at least a little bit wrong.  The guy who knows he's wrong is a little closer to being right than the guy who doesn't.  But the guy who thinks he's right about knowing that he's wrong, well, maybe he's wrong about being right about being wrong, and that makes him a little less right and a little more wrong.*

*Now you see the Wooderson coming out.

Science, like law, works best in an adversarial system.  Holmes called it "the marketplace of ideas."  The foundation of the scientific method is the systematic observation of reproducible phenomena.  If it ain't reproducible, it ain't science.  You hypothesize an explanation, experiment, observe, and adjust.  Then you write up a lab report and get it published.  If I don't like your explanation, I can repeat your procedure and see what happens. No matter how much I hate using your explanation to connect the observable cause with the observable result, it's hard to argue with my own observations.

But what if your explanation covers something that's not reproducible?  What if you refer to an unobservable cause, for example?  How can I dispute your explanation?  Since I can't reproduce it, my best bet is an ad hominem attack.  I'll call you stupid or biased or incompetent, and you'll call me lazy or backward or illegitimate, and we'll be three steps closer to Truth.*

*After all, under the Masten Theory of the Universe, 

you are in fact stupid, biased, and incompetent, and I

am in fact lazy, backward, and illegitimate.

When you step out of the realm of reproducibility, you step into the realm of logical (or illogical) conclusions.  And the rules of logic may yet, like the laws of physics, prove not entirely dependable.

What's the point of all this rant?  Simply this: reproducibility and truthiness are not synonyms, nor should passionate belief be confused with knowledge.  Too many unthinking, close-minded scientists make the first blunder, and too many unthinking, close-minded religious zealots make the second.

Home is where the heart is

This, amigos, is my place of abode.

Amazing, I know.

Response does not compute

Today, I was reading a two-day-old article about the manhunt for the guy who killed four police outside Seattle last Sunday, when I ran across this:

Police later learned he may have been in a house in Seattle. After an all-night siege in which they tried to get him out using loudspeakers, explosions and a robot sent into the house, a SWAT team stormed the place and discovered he was not there.

Wait, what?  They sent a robot into the house??  What is this, Robocop?  They should have sent this guy:

He'd have gotten the job done, unless he tripped on the stairs.

Two Triolets

Two triolets for my loyal readers.  The first is one written by Gail White called "Worker Bees":

Staring at fluorescent screens,
letting life pass by unheeded,
little better than machines
staring at fluorescent screens,
we’ll pass on our altered genes
to generations who’ll be seated
staring at fluorescent screens,
letting life pass by unheeded.

True story.  The second is my very amateur attempt at triolet poetry.  I call it "Loyalty":

I sit next to you,
And you sit next to me.
When storms are all a-brew
I just sit next to you.
We don't need the lee;
We enjoy the breeze
When I sit next to you
And you sit next to me.

 And there you have it.  I hope you enjoyed our little excursion into medieval French poetry.

Renewed Lease on Life

My computer is a couple of years old and can run very slowly at times.  I had to shut it down with difficulty several times in the past couple of weeks.  Rather than lament the state of the economy and my computer, I took charge.  I installed Xubuntu.  In fact, I'm typing this post from within Xubuntu right now.  So far, my only complaints are (1) no iTunes (so I have to borrow The Missus's computer for that) and (2) no Chrome.  Of course, the most important nice thing is that I am having (so far) super performance.  Who knew my old computer could go this fast?

I'll keep you posted, now that I can.

2 out of 2 ain’t bad

The results are as yet unofficial, but the Baylor University School of Law is, so far as I know, batting 1.000 on the July 2009 Maryland General Bar Examination.  Congratulations are particularly in order for Mr. Dylan Q. Springmann, who rocked the sports law essay so hard they gave him a 7 on a scale of 6 and then counted it three times instead of the more typical two.

If you pass him in the hall, be sure to give him a high five.

The World Has Turned and Left Me Here

Once again, truth, justice, and the American way give way to lies, favoritism, and the American way.  The Yankees won World Series CV, giving them a record 816 banners in their rafters.  Therefore, I present to you this beautiful poem by Robert S. Wieder, titled “Baseball”:

If this terse rhyme, about our pastime
Seems a little cranky,
It’s possibly because the writer
Hates the F&$%ing Yankees.

Soulmates: A Sestina

©2009 by Jeremy Masten

At six o'clock, I wake up to alarms
Wanting me to get up on my legs.
I'm missing one; I reach out for my crutch.
Aluminum is all the latest fancy.
I hobble to the bathroom, pull the cord
That lights the room, awaking and frustrating.

I hobble to my closet.  How frustrating
That all my clothes don't fit.  That fire alarm
That doused my clothes: it shrunk up all my cord's.
They once were long enough inside the leg
But now are short and ratty.  Stupid crutch
That makes me hobble keeps me free of fancies.

I used to think a woman was a fancy
Way to keep a man in line, frustrating
His ideas, acting like a crutch
When all he needs is truth, a rough alarm
To wake him up and put him on his legs.
She’s like, I thought, a pretty minor chord.

But women aren't instruments whose chords
Can be predicted.  No, they're much too fancy
For that.  I met a woman on her legs
Who found that I could be a bit frustrating.
The day we met, outside the school, alarms
Were blaring, answering my lifelong crush.

She probably wouldn't like me as a crutch;
She's probably good enough to find accord;
She wakes up on her own, with no alarm
And leads a life of art, of something fancy;
She probably never finds herself frustrated;
She knows exactly what keeps her on her legs.

And I'm afraid that I do, too.  Her legs,
So perfect that she doesn't need a crutch.
And what am I?  A burden, a frustration.
She knows this song and dance; she’s played the chords.
I've grown attached to her, I think I fancy
That she's what keeps me waking sine alarm.

So when I say that I don't need alarms,
And when you notice that I have both my legs,
And when you wonder whether I'm too fancy,
Remember I am just a man.  My crutch
Is she who keeps me walking, playing chords
That soothe and vent and cut off all frustration.

She's on her legs, she pulls the cords
That drag my crutch into my fancy.
No more frustration, no more alarm.

So much to live for

I read this today and thought you might like it.

A Ballade of Suicide, by G.K. Chesterton

The gallows in my garden, people say,
Is new and neat and adequately tall;
I tie the noose on in a knowing way
As one that knots his necktie for a ball;
But just as all the neighbours---on the wall---
Are drawing a long breath to shout “Hurray!”
The strangest whim has seized me. . . . After all
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

To-morrow is the time I get my pay---
My uncle’s sword is hanging in the hall---
I see a little cloud all pink and grey---
Perhaps the rector’s mother will not call---
I fancy that I heard from Mr. Gall
That mushrooms could be cooked another way---
I never read the works of Juvenal---
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

The world will have another washing-day;
The decadents decay; the pedants pall;
And H.G. Wells has found that children play,
And Bernard Shaw discovered that they squall,
Rationalists are growing rational---
And through thick woods one finds a stream astray
So secret that the very sky seems small---
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

Envoi

Prince, I can hear the trumpet of Germinal,
The tumbrels toiling up the terrible way;
Even to-day your royal head may fall,
I think I will not hang myself to-day.

Pack up your things and go

When I was in high school, I made sandwiches for Subway Sandwiches and Salads.  I started my career in sandwich art at Store 10882, but I really shined at Store 3035.  I transferred there as part of a reorganization of that store.  They were slowly eliminating some terrible workers one by one, as just (enough) cause arose, and replacing them mostly with workers from other stores.  I came over about halfway through the transition.

One of my eliminated coworkers was a girl named Robin.  She got in trouble for cursing at a customer.  One week she was on the schedule; the next week, she wasn’t.  She called me at work the day the schedule came out and asked what her hours were.  I told her she wasn’t on the schedule, and she asked me, rather politely, “Why the f--- not??”  I told her she should probably call our district manager, Dwight Schrute.

The next time I saw her was payday.  When Robin asked for her paycheck, I informed her of Subway’s policy of holding the final paycheck until the entire uniform had been returned.  She asked me why in three words that start with w, t, and f, respectively, and I confessed ignorance.  “Whatever,” she agreed and promised to bring her uniform back.  I held on to her $67-check.

A few minutes later, Robin returned with a green Subway shirt crumpled up like a snowball with a rock inside.  She pegged me with it, explaining, “There’s your f---ing piece of s--- uni-f---ing-form.  G--d--- I hate this f---ing s---hole.  Gimme my f---ing paycheck.”  I complied with her request and wished her happy trails.

Before today, that was my only real experience with existential process of termination.

NBA 2009-10 = a w e s o m e

If you are unconvinced of the NBA’s greatness, please read Mark Heisler’s column in the Baltimore Sun.  You now know why 2009-10 could be one of the most competitive and exciting years in NBA history.  Everybody has this one shot to make it count.  But I tend to agree with Bill Simmons: 2010 is the Year of the Spur.

That is all.

Ain’t Nothin but a 1950 Party

Because I like baseball, I’m going to post twice tonight.  With the Yankees’ 10-1 trouncing of the Angels, it looks like we’re going to see a rematch of the unforgettable 1950 World Series, which the Yankees swept.  While doing research to see how many times these two teams have met in the World Series I discovered something neat.

In 1914 and 1915, back when five cities had dual representation*, two cities presaged the patriotic Super Bowl XXXIX.  In 1914, the Boston Braves swept the Philadelphia Athletics in the World Series.  Then, in 1915, the Boston Red Sox charged past the Philadelphia Phillies in five games.  So, Boston beat Philadelphia twice in a row, but with different teams.  I wonder how many times that kind of thing has happened.

 

*New York, Chicago, St. Louis, Boston, and Philadelphia.

Life Imitates Me

A couple of years ago, I took a bus from Manhattan to D.C.  As we were just about to go under the Hudson River, I noticed that all the cars around us were like us: taxis, buses, delivery trucks.  There were no private cars.  At that moment, I had a brilliant idea: What if you closed off a city to all traffic except for certain licensed vehicles, like public transportation or taxis and delivery trucks?

I still think about the idea, most commonly when I’m commuting home from work.  (I imagine the press conference, with an almost-chic young reporter standing on the steps of city hall, “Thanks, Tom.  I’m here at Baltimore City Hall where---just today---the city council voted . . . “)  Tonight, I opened up my Baltimore Sun and saw some evidence that other people have had the same idea: “D.C.-area planners crack down on parking: Capacity cut, costs raised to get people out of cars.”  The article concludes by noting that Federal City has reduced its minimum parking requirements in recent years from 4 spots for every 1,000 square feet of retail space to just 1 spot.

I’m generally a fan of public transportation, but I think there are two things to keep in mind.  First, public transportation is either really good (e.g., New York City subway system) or really limited (e.g., Waco, Texas, bus system), and it takes a lot of time and money to get a really good system.  And second, like the right to own property, the right to physically move about (mostly) freely is one of the cornerstones of liberty.  I’m just saying.

Hater of Earths

I just did the math.  It costs me less money to drive to work than take public transportation.  The proofs:

Driving = 30.6 miles round trip / 20 mpg* x $2.50/gallon** = $3.83 per day

Light rail = 7.4 miles round trip / 20 mpg x $2.50/gallon + $3.20 fare = $4.13 per day

It should be noted that I get free parking downtown.  Otherwise, light rail would win by as much as fifteen dollars.  I will further grant that taking the light rail would give me about two hours’ reading time each day and that the earth would love me more.  But at this point in my career---newly printed J.D. still smells like the calligrapher’s cologne---I sell out the earth for just 30 cents a day.

 

 

*I actually get a little better (usually around 23), but I wanted to give public transportation as much help as I could.

**Last night, I bought gas for $2.31 per.

Let’s Try This Again

Last week, I made my baseball playoffs predictions.  I was right about the Twins beating the Tigers, the Dodgers beating the Cardinals, and the Phillies beating the Rockies.  I was wrong about the two teams I hate more than any other in baseball: the Angels and the Yankees.  That makes me an unhappy 3-2 by my count.

Since I was right about the Dodgers and Phillies, my prediction as to them stands: I still pick the Dodgers.

Between the Yankees and the Angels . . . can I pick them both to lose?  I find that I hate both teams too much to want either one to win.  I am ashamed that the American League couldn’t come up with any one capable of beating either of those teams.  Ugh.  Yet choose I must, and I pick the Yankees.  Here’s why.

First, I hate the Angels more than I hate the Yankees.  I will catch some flak for that, but what is popular is not always right and what is right is not always popular.  I’m taking a stand for individualism right here.

Second, statistically, the Yankees dominated the Twins just a little more than the Angels dominated the Red Sox.  The Yankees come into the ALCS with a Pythagorean win-expectation of 5.90 compared to the Angels’ 5.74, based on their respective divisional series.*

Third, the Dodgers and Yankees have a classic rivalry.  They haven’t met in the World Series since 1981, but before that, they met twice in the 1970s (1977 and 1978), once in the 1960s (1963), four times in the 1950s (1952, 1953, 1955, and 1956), and three times in the 1940s (1941, 1947, and 1949).  That means these guys have played each other for the world championship eleven times.  I’d be willing to bet that’s more than any other two teams in baseball.  The Dodgers have only won three times (1959, 1963, and 1981), but I think momentum can stretch 28 years.

The Dodgers and Yankees are the Cowboys and Steelers or the Lakers and Celtics of baseball.**  Given our options, it’d be nice to see that rivalry renewed.

And fourth, nobody wants a Staples Center Series.  That’d be waaaaaaay too lame.

 

 

 

*If you’re interested in where I came up with those numbers, ask me in a comment and I’ll let you know.

**Somehow I doubt Bud Selig is peeing in his pants for a Dodgers-Yankees championship as much as David Stern was for a Celtics-Lakers NBA Finals back in 2008.