Wednesday, January 30, 2008

For whom will the plaintiffs vote?

I majored in political science, but I'm not a political pundit.  In the last 20 minutes, two headlines surprised me.  First, America's mayor got trounced in the only state he's campaigned in.  Second, John Edwards is dropping out.  I didn't expect either of those.  I expected Giuliani to win the Republican nomination pretty easily, given his reputation as a law-and-order type and his smooth handling of 9/11.  But maybe Floridian Republicans didn't like his iffy stances on immigration and abortion.  He probably regrets limiting his campaign thus far to Florida . . . as Michael Scott says: Play to win, because you've got to win to play.

As for John Edwards: I didn't think he would snag the nomination, but I liked him in 2004, and he was the only realistic candidate who could continue the Southern Dynasty.*  It will be really interesting to see whether his supporters line up behind Clinton or Obama.  (Or maybe Huckabee.)

So there you have it.  Last year, I thought the 2008 election would surely be Giuliani v. Edwards.  I guess I was wrong.


*Interestingly, if you ignore California, there hasn't been an elected president not from the South since Kennedy.


ALV said...

Oh, silly Jeremy. Those were 2 that I was pretty darn certain wouldn't get the nom - you've got a prettyboy who couldn't get the nomination among 9 nobodies last time (and who gets on my nerves like no other, but that's another story), and for sure wasn't going to get it among the Golden Boy and the Feminist Heir to Throne, and a "republican" that all other republicans regarded as completely dyed-in-the-wool except that he was a nice figurehead during 9/11 - but that sympathy doesn't cloak the fact that he's so socially liberal. He might have been viable in the general election, but he would have never gotten the nomination (especially considering that only the committed party members vote in primaries - I've been a delegate to the Texas republican convention twice, and damn, republicans who are involved in the party are hard core crazies - either complete libertarians or total homeschoolers).


Jeremy Masten said...

I like to think that people who vote in the primaries are not just the party crazies but also the people who want the party to take control in November. That's why I thought Giuliani and Edwards--they had the best chance of snatching up independent voters. At least until Obama started talking some sense and McCain made his miraculous comeback.

My new prediction: McCain v. Obama.